Pomorzanin Toruń 3–1 Mieszko Gniezno

Pomorzanin Toruń

FT

3 – 1

Mieszko Gniezno

8/29/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pomorzanin Toruń80%

×Draw13%

Mieszko Gniezno7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pomorzanin ToruńExpected goals in this matchMieszko Gniezno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

0.65

Pomorzanin Toruń

2.68

Mieszko Gniezno

0.65

Pomorzanin Toruń creates 312% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

0.41

0.88

allows per match

4.24

creates per match

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.12

Mieszko Gniezno

0.41

allows per match

Pomorzanin Toruń

0.88

Mieszko Gniezno

4.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomorzanin Toruń ↓

Mieszko Gniezno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Pomorzanin Toruń or draw

93%

Pomorzanin Toruń or Mieszko Gniezno

87%

Draw or Mieszko Gniezno

20%

Winning margin

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+

59%

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals

93%

Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals

74%

Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals

49%

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals

48%

Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals

14%

Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)

92%

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomorzanin Toruń at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Mieszko Gniezno away — creates 0.41, concedes 4.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.12 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 2.68

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.41 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more

80%

level

13%

Mieszko Gniezno scores more

7%

Pomorzanin Toruń at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Pomorzanin Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff