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Pomorzanin Toruń vs Gryf Wejherowo — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pomorzanin Toruń
Pomorzanin Toruń
FT
2 – 0
Gryf Wejherowo
Gryf Wejherowo
5/1/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pomorzanin Toruń50%
×Draw25%
Gryf Wejherowo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pomorzanin Toruń
1.56
Gryf Wejherowo
1.03

Pomorzanin Toruń creates 51% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Pomorzanin Toruń
1.12
Gryf Wejherowo
1.18

allows per match

Pomorzanin Toruń
0.88
Gryf Wejherowo
2.00

finishing

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par
Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomorzanin Toruń ↓

Gryf Wejherowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pomorzanin Toruń or draw
75%
Pomorzanin Toruń or Gryf Wejherowo
75%
Draw or Gryf Wejherowo
50%

Winning margin

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+
26%
Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals
79%
Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals
46%
Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals
21%
Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals
64%
Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals
28%
Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)
66%
Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomorzanin Toruń at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Gryf Wejherowo away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.12 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Gryf Wejherowo attack 1.18 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more
50%
level
25%
Gryf Wejherowo scores more
25%

Pomorzanin Toruń at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pomorzanin Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Pomorzanin Toruń 2–0 Gryf Wejherowo

Pomorzanin Toruń beat Gryf Wejherowo 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.