Pomorzanin Toruń 4–2 Chemik Police: Result & Stats

Pomorzanin Toruń

FT

4 – 2

Chemik Police

5/8/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pomorzanin Toruń65%

×Draw20%

Chemik Police15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pomorzanin ToruńExpected goals in this matchChemik Police

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.88

Pomorzanin Toruń

2.06

Chemik Police

0.88

Pomorzanin Toruń creates 134% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

0.88

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.12

Chemik Police

0.88

allows per match

Pomorzanin Toruń

0.88

Chemik Police

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Chemik Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomorzanin Toruń ↓

Chemik Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Pomorzanin Toruń or draw

85%

Pomorzanin Toruń or Chemik Police

80%

Draw or Chemik Police

35%

Winning margin

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+

40%

Chemik Police wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals

87%

Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals

61%

Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals

34%

Chemik Police 1+ goals

59%

Chemik Police 2+ goals

22%

Chemik Police 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)

81%

Chemik Police (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomorzanin Toruń at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Chemik Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.12 + Chemik Police defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Chemik Police attack 0.88 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more

65%

level

20%

Chemik Police scores more

15%

Pomorzanin Toruń at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Pomorzanin Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff