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Pomorzanin Toruń vs Bałtyk Gdynia — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pomorzanin Toruń
Pomorzanin Toruń
FT
0 – 2
Bałtyk Gdynia
Bałtyk Gdynia
8/1/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pomorzanin Toruń54%
×Draw26%
Bałtyk Gdynia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pomorzanin Toruń
1.56
Bałtyk Gdynia
0.86

Pomorzanin Toruń creates 81% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pomorzanin Toruń
1.12
Bałtyk Gdynia
0.84

allows per match

Pomorzanin Toruń
0.88
Bałtyk Gdynia
2.00

finishing

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par
Bałtyk Gdynia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomorzanin Toruń ↓

Bałtyk Gdynia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pomorzanin Toruń or draw
79%
Pomorzanin Toruń or Bałtyk Gdynia
74%
Draw or Bałtyk Gdynia
46%

Winning margin

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+
28%
Bałtyk Gdynia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals
79%
Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals
46%
Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals
21%
Bałtyk Gdynia 1+ goals
58%
Bałtyk Gdynia 2+ goals
21%
Bałtyk Gdynia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)
72%
Bałtyk Gdynia (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomorzanin Toruń at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Bałtyk Gdynia away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.00 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.12 + Bałtyk Gdynia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bałtyk Gdynia attack 0.84 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more
54%
level
26%
Bałtyk Gdynia scores more
21%

Pomorzanin Toruń at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pomorzanin Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pomorzanin Toruń vs Bałtyk Gdynia

Bałtyk Gdynia beat Pomorzanin Toruń 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.