Pomorie 1–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad: Result & Stats

Pomorie

FT

1 – 0

Pirin Blagoevgrad

2/23/2019

Second League · Round 18Gradski stadion (Nesebar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pomorie21%

×Draw23%

Pirin Blagoevgrad56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PomorieExpected goals in this matchPirin Blagoevgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.79

Pomorie

1.00

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.79

Pirin Blagoevgrad creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

0.73

creates per match

1.38

2.20

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Pomorie

0.73

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.38

allows per match

Pomorie

2.20

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pomorie+0.00on par

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomorie ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pomorie or draw

44%

Pomorie or Pirin Blagoevgrad

77%

Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad

79%

Winning margin

Pomorie wins by 2+

7%

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Pomorie 1+ goals

63%

Pomorie 2+ goals

26%

Pomorie 3+ goals

8%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals

83%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals

53%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Pomorie (draw refunded)

27%

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomorie at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomorie attack 0.73 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.00

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.38 + Pomorie defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pomorie scores more

21%

level

23%

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more

56%

Pirin Blagoevgrad at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff