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Pomezia vs Vis Artena — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Pomezia
Pomezia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vis Artena
Vis Artena
3/5/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 26Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pomezia32%
×Draw25%
Vis Artena42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pomezia
1.26
Vis Artena
1.48

Vis Artena creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 47 away

creates per match

Pomezia
1.33
Vis Artena
1.06

allows per match

Pomezia
1.89
Vis Artena
1.19

finishing

Pomezia+0.00on par
Vis Artena+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomezia ↓

Vis Artena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pomezia or draw
58%
Pomezia or Vis Artena
75%
Draw or Vis Artena
68%

Winning margin

Pomezia wins by 2+
14%
Vis Artena wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pomezia 1+ goals
72%
Pomezia 2+ goals
36%
Pomezia 3+ goals
13%
Vis Artena 1+ goals
77%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
43%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pomezia (draw refunded)
43%
Vis Artena (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomezia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

Vis Artena away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomezia attack 1.33 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Vis Artena attack 1.06 + Pomezia defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pomezia scores more
32%
level
25%
Vis Artena scores more
42%

Vis Artena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Pomezia 0–1 Vis Artena

Vis Artena beat Pomezia 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Pomezia.