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Pomezia vs Sarrabus Ogliastra — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Pomezia
Pomezia
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 2
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1/15/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 19Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pomezia38%
×Draw24%
Sarrabus Ogliastra38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pomezia
1.52
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 68 away

creates per match

Pomezia
1.33
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.16

allows per match

Pomezia
1.89
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.71

finishing

Pomezia+0.00on par
Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomezia ↓

Sarrabus Ogliastra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pomezia or draw
62%
Pomezia or Sarrabus Ogliastra
76%
Draw or Sarrabus Ogliastra
62%

Winning margin

Pomezia wins by 2+
18%
Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pomezia 1+ goals
78%
Pomezia 2+ goals
45%
Pomezia 3+ goals
20%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals
78%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals
45%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pomezia (draw refunded)
50%
Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomezia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomezia attack 1.33 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.16 + Pomezia defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pomezia scores more
38%
level
24%
Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more
38%

Pomezia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pomezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Pomezia 3–4 Sarrabus Ogliastra

Sarrabus Ogliastra beat Pomezia 4-3 in Serie D - Girone G on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Pomezia.