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Pomezia vs Atletico Uri — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Pomezia
Pomezia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
3/19/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 28Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pomezia41%
×Draw25%
Atletico Uri35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pomezia
1.52
Atletico Uri
1.38

Pomezia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 68 away

creates per match

Pomezia
1.33
Atletico Uri
0.87

allows per match

Pomezia
1.89
Atletico Uri
1.71

finishing

Pomezia+0.00on par
Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomezia ↓

Atletico Uri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pomezia or draw
65%
Pomezia or Atletico Uri
75%
Draw or Atletico Uri
59%

Winning margin

Pomezia wins by 2+
20%
Atletico Uri wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pomezia 1+ goals
78%
Pomezia 2+ goals
45%
Pomezia 3+ goals
20%
Atletico Uri 1+ goals
75%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
40%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pomezia (draw refunded)
54%
Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomezia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomezia attack 1.33 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Pomezia defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pomezia scores more
41%
level
25%
Atletico Uri scores more
35%

Pomezia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pomezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pomezia vs Atletico Uri

Pomezia beat Atletico Uri 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Pomezia.