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Pombal vs Tondela — Taça de Portugal 2018

Pombal
Pombal
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Tondela
Tondela
9/24/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal de Pombal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pombal17%
×Draw19%
Tondela63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pombal
1.08
Tondela
2.25

Tondela creates 108% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

Pombal
0.67
Tondela
1.50

allows per match

Pombal
3.00
Tondela
1.50

finishing

Pombal+0.00on par
Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pombal ↓

Tondela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pombal or draw
37%
Pombal or Tondela
81%
Draw or Tondela
83%

Winning margin

Pombal wins by 2+
6%
Tondela wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Pombal 1+ goals
66%
Pombal 2+ goals
29%
Pombal 3+ goals
10%
Tondela 1+ goals
89%
Tondela 2+ goals
65%
Tondela 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Pombal (draw refunded)
21%
Tondela (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pombal at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pombal attack 0.67 + Tondela defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tondela attack 1.50 + Pombal defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Pombal scores more
17%
level
19%
Tondela scores more
63%

Tondela at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Pombal 0–5 Tondela

Tondela beat Pombal 5-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Pombal in Pombal.