Polotsk 0–9 ML Vitebsk: Result & Stats | Coppa

Polotsk

0 – 9

HT: 0 – 6

ML Vitebsk

5/29/2022

Coppa · 2nd RoundStadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Polotsk4%

×Draw7%

ML Vitebsk88%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PolotskExpected goals in this matchML Vitebsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

4.38

Polotsk

1.00

ML Vitebsk

4.38

ML Vitebsk creates 338% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

4.00

4.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Polotsk

1.00

ML Vitebsk

4.00

allows per match

Polotsk

4.75

ML Vitebsk

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polotsk+0.00on par

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polotsk ↓

ML Vitebsk →

0–01%

0–12%

0–25%

0–38%

0–48%

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–44%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Polotsk or draw

12%

Polotsk or ML Vitebsk

93%

Draw or ML Vitebsk

96%

Winning margin

Polotsk wins by 2+

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+

75%

Team goals

Polotsk 1+ goals

63%

Polotsk 2+ goals

26%

Polotsk 3+ goals

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals

99%

ML Vitebsk 2+ goals

92%

ML Vitebsk 3+ goals

78%

Draw no bet

Polotsk (draw refunded)

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polotsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.75 · 8 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polotsk attack 1.00 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

ML Vitebsk attack 4.00 + Polotsk defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 4.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 88%?"

Polotsk scores more

level

ML Vitebsk scores more

88%

ML Vitebsk at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff