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Polonia Warszawa vs Wissa Szczuczyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
2 – 0
Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
11/19/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia Warszawa74%
×Draw17%
Wissa Szczuczyn9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
2.31
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.68

Polonia Warszawa creates 240% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 18 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
2.40
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.56

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
0.80
Wissa Szczuczyn
2.22

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Wissa Szczuczyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
91%
Polonia Warszawa or Wissa Szczuczyn
83%
Draw or Wissa Szczuczyn
26%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
50%
Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
90%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
67%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
40%
Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
49%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
15%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
89%
Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 35 matches

Wissa Szczuczyn away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 2.40 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.31

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 0.56 + Polonia Warszawa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
74%
level
17%
Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
9%

Polonia Warszawa at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Polonia Warszawa 2–0 Wissa Szczuczyn

Polonia Warszawa beat Wissa Szczuczyn 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.