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Polonia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow — I Liga 2018

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wisla Krakow
Wisla Krakow
12/6/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 19Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Polonia Warszawa29%
×Draw25%
Wisla Krakow46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
1.21
Wisla Krakow
1.59

Wisla Krakow creates 31% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.27
Wisla Krakow
1.78

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.41
Wisla Krakow
1.16

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Wisla Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Wisla Krakow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
54%
Polonia Warszawa or Wisla Krakow
75%
Draw or Wisla Krakow
71%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
12%
Wisla Krakow wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
70%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
34%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
12%
Wisla Krakow 1+ goals
80%
Wisla Krakow 2+ goals
47%
Wisla Krakow 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
39%
Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Wisla Krakow away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Wisla Krakow attack 1.78 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
29%
level
25%
Wisla Krakow scores more
46%

Wisla Krakow at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow

Polonia Warszawa beat Wisla Krakow 2-0 in I Liga on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.