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Polonia Warszawa vs Tychy 71 — I Liga 2018

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tychy 71
Tychy 71
10/20/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 13Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Polonia Warszawa39%
×Draw26%
Tychy 7135%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
1.39
Tychy 71
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 136 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.27
Tychy 71
1.22

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.41
Tychy 71
1.50

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Tychy 71 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
65%
Polonia Warszawa or Tychy 71
74%
Draw or Tychy 71
61%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
18%
Tychy 71 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
75%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
40%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
16%
Tychy 71 1+ goals
73%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
38%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
52%
Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.50 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Tychy 71 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
39%
level
26%
Tychy 71 scores more
35%

Polonia Warszawa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Polonia Warszawa 2–1 Tychy 71

Polonia Warszawa beat Tychy 71 2-1 in I Liga on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.