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Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Rzeszów — I Liga 2018

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
11/4/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 15Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Polonia Warszawa42%
×Draw25%
Stal Rzeszów33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
1.50
Stal Rzeszów
1.30

Polonia Warszawa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.27
Stal Rzeszów
1.19

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.41
Stal Rzeszów
1.74

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Stal Rzeszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
67%
Polonia Warszawa or Stal Rzeszów
75%
Draw or Stal Rzeszów
58%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
20%
Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
78%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
44%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
19%
Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
73%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
37%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
56%
Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Stal Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
42%
level
25%
Stal Rzeszów scores more
33%

Polonia Warszawa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Rzeszów

Polonia Warszawa beat Stal Rzeszów 1-0 in I Liga on November 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.