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Polonia Warszawa vs Pilica Białobrzegi — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
6 – 1
Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
5/11/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Polonia Warszawa69%
×Draw17%
Pilica Białobrzegi13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
2.42
Pilica Białobrzegi
0.96

Polonia Warszawa creates 152% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 52 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
2.40
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.13

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
0.80
Pilica Białobrzegi
2.44

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
87%
Polonia Warszawa or Pilica Białobrzegi
83%
Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi
31%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
47%
Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
91%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
69%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
43%
Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
62%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
25%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
84%
Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 35 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 2.40 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.42

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Polonia Warszawa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
69%
level
17%
Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
13%

Polonia Warszawa at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Polonia Warszawa 6 – 1 Pilica Białobrzegi

Polonia Warszawa beat Pilica Białobrzegi 6-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.