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Polonia Warszawa vs Odra Opole — I Liga 2018

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Odra Opole
Odra Opole
5/19/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 33Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Polonia Warszawa41%
×Draw26%
Odra Opole33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
1.44
Odra Opole
1.25

Polonia Warszawa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 138 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.27
Odra Opole
1.08

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.41
Odra Opole
1.60

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Odra Opole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
67%
Polonia Warszawa or Odra Opole
74%
Draw or Odra Opole
59%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
20%
Odra Opole wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
76%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
42%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
18%
Odra Opole 1+ goals
71%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
36%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
56%
Odra Opole (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Odra Opole defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Odra Opole attack 1.08 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
41%
level
26%
Odra Opole scores more
33%

Polonia Warszawa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Warszawa vs Odra Opole

Polonia Warszawa and Odra Opole drew 1-1 in I Liga on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.