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Polonia Warszawa vs Nieciecza — I Liga 2018

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
11/4/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 14Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Polonia Warszawa32%
×Draw26%
Nieciecza42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
1.25
Nieciecza
1.46

Nieciecza creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 103 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.27
Nieciecza
1.50

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.41
Nieciecza
1.22

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
58%
Polonia Warszawa or Nieciecza
74%
Draw or Nieciecza
68%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
14%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
71%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
36%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
13%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
77%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
43%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
44%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Nieciecza defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nieciecza attack 1.50 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
32%
level
26%
Nieciecza scores more
42%

Nieciecza at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Nieciecza

Polonia Warszawa and Nieciecza drew 1-1 in I Liga on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.