Polonia Warszawa 3–4 Miedz Legnica: Result & Stats

Polonia Warszawa

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Miedz Legnica

S. Kobusiński 82' (pen), 11'

M. Michalski 69' (pen)

M. Mansfeld 84'

K. Drzazga 66'

D. Michalik 54'

K. Drygas 17'

8/14/2023

I Liga · Round 4Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Polonia Warszawa34%

×Draw27%

Miedz Legnica39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia WarszawaExpected goals in this matchMiedz Legnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.31

Polonia Warszawa

1.22

Miedz Legnica

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 103 away

1.27

creates per match

1.22

1.41

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa

1.27

Miedz Legnica

1.22

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa

1.41

Miedz Legnica

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Miedz Legnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw

61%

Polonia Warszawa or Miedz Legnica

73%

Draw or Miedz Legnica

66%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+

15%

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals

70%

Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals

34%

Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals

12%

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

73%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

38%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)

47%

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Miedz Legnica attack 1.22 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more

34%

level

27%

Miedz Legnica scores more

39%

Miedz Legnica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

14'

17'

40'

54'

59'

63'

D. Pawłowski← W. Fadecki

63'

K. Koton← J. Piątek

64'

J. Carolina← M. Kostka

64'

K. Drzazga← D. Michalik

66'

K. Drzazga

69'

M. MichalskiPenalty

73'

M. Mansfeld← K. Drygas

73'

P. Pierzak← M. Lehaire

75'

M. Kluska← M. Bajdur

82'

S. KobusińskiPenalty

84'

N. Zawistowski← B. Biedrzycki

84'

P. Tomczyk← P. Marciniec

84'

M. Mansfeld

86'

A. Niewulis← K. Antonik

Polonia

Miedz

▼

⚽

▼

Drygas

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: R. Smalec

63'▲D. Pawłowski←▼W. Fadecki

63'▲K. Koton←▼J. Piątek

75'▲M. Kluska←▼M. Bajdur

84'▲N. Zawistowski←▼B. Biedrzycki

84'▲P. Tomczyk←▼P. Marciniec

Polonia Warszawa substitutes

PawłowskiKotonKluskaZawistowskiTomczykLemanowiczMajsterekWojciechowskiWełna

Manager: R. Bella

64'▲J. Carolina←▼M. Kostka

64'▲K. Drzazga←▼D. Michalik

73'▲M. Mansfeld←▼K. Drygas

73'▲P. Pierzak←▼M. Lehaire

86'▲A. Niewulis←▼K. Antonik

Miedz Legnica substitutes

CarolinaDrzazgaMansfeldPierzakNiewulisGuzdekStanclikAbramowicz

Match Recap: Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica

Miedz Legnica beat Polonia Warszawa 4-3 in I Liga on August 14, 2023.

Goals: S. Kobusiński (11', 82' pen), K. Drygas (17'), D. Michalik (54'), K. Drzazga (66'), M. Michalski (69' pen), M. Mansfeld (84').

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.

Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica