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Miedz Legnica vs Polonia Warszawa — I Liga 2018

Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
2/23/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 21Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Miedz Legnica43%
×Draw25%
Polonia Warszawa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedz Legnica
1.56
Polonia Warszawa
1.30

Miedz Legnica creates 20% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 53 away

creates per match

Miedz Legnica
1.83
Polonia Warszawa
1.45

allows per match

Miedz Legnica
1.15
Polonia Warszawa
1.30

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Polonia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw
68%
Miedz Legnica or Polonia Warszawa
75%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa
57%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
22%
Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
79%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
46%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
21%
Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
73%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
37%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
58%
Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 102 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.83 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.45 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more
43%
level
25%
Polonia Warszawa scores more
32%

Miedz Legnica at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miedz Legnica vs Polonia Warszawa

Miedz Legnica beat Polonia Warszawa 2-1 in I Liga on February 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Legnica.