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Polonia Warszawa vs Legionovia Legionowo — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
5 – 1
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
5/29/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Polonia Warszawa55%
×Draw22%
Legionovia Legionowo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
2.01
Legionovia Legionowo
1.25

Polonia Warszawa creates 61% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 70 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
2.40
Legionovia Legionowo
1.69

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
0.80
Legionovia Legionowo
1.63

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
76%
Polonia Warszawa or Legionovia Legionowo
78%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
45%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
32%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
87%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
59%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
32%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
71%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
36%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
70%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 35 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 2.40 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.01

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Polonia Warszawa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
55%
level
22%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
24%

Polonia Warszawa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Polonia Warszawa 5–1 Legionovia Legionowo

Polonia Warszawa beat Legionovia Legionowo 5-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.