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Polonia Warszawa vs Huragan Morąg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
2 – 2
Huragan Morąg
Huragan Morąg
11/28/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia Warszawa66%
×Draw19%
Huragan Morąg15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
2.31
Huragan Morąg
1.01

Polonia Warszawa creates 129% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 18 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
2.40
Huragan Morąg
1.22

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
0.80
Huragan Morąg
2.22

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Huragan Morąg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Huragan Morąg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
85%
Polonia Warszawa or Huragan Morąg
81%
Draw or Huragan Morąg
34%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
43%
Huragan Morąg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
90%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
67%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
40%
Huragan Morąg 1+ goals
64%
Huragan Morąg 2+ goals
27%
Huragan Morąg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
81%
Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 35 matches

Huragan Morąg away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 2.40 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.31

Huragan Morąg attack 1.22 + Polonia Warszawa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
66%
level
19%
Huragan Morąg scores more
15%

Polonia Warszawa at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Polonia Warszawa 2–2 Huragan Morąg

Polonia Warszawa and Huragan Morąg drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.