Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Polonia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna — I Liga 2018

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
2/21/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 21Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Polonia Warszawa37%
×Draw27%
Górnik Łęczna36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
1.30
Górnik Łęczna
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 86 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.27
Górnik Łęczna
1.13

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.41
Górnik Łęczna
1.33

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Górnik Łęczna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
64%
Polonia Warszawa or Górnik Łęczna
73%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna
63%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
17%
Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
73%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
37%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
14%
Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
72%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
36%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
51%
Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.13 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
37%
level
27%
Górnik Łęczna scores more
36%

Polonia Warszawa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Polonia Warszawa 2–1 Górnik Łęczna

Polonia Warszawa beat Górnik Łęczna 2-1 in I Liga on February 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.