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Polonia Warszawa vs Concordia Elbląg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
2 – 0
Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
8/15/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Polonia Warszawa71%
×Draw17%
Concordia Elbląg12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
2.48
Concordia Elbląg
0.92

Polonia Warszawa creates 170% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
2.40
Concordia Elbląg
1.04

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
0.80
Concordia Elbląg
2.57

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Concordia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
88%
Polonia Warszawa or Concordia Elbląg
83%
Draw or Concordia Elbląg
29%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
49%
Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
92%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
70%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
44%
Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
60%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
23%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
85%
Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 35 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 2.40 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.48

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Polonia Warszawa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
71%
level
17%
Concordia Elbląg scores more
12%

Polonia Warszawa at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Polonia Warszawa 2–0 Concordia Elbląg

Polonia Warszawa beat Concordia Elbląg 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.