Polonia Warszawa vs Chrobry Głogów

Polonia Warszawa

Preview

15:00

Chrobry Głogów

9/19/2026

I Liga · Round 9Stadion Polonii

Big match

38%

Polonia Warszawa

model favours

38%26%35%

Polonia Warszawa score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

under 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Polonia Warszawa38%

×Draw26%

Chrobry Głogów35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia WarszawaExpected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.27

Polonia Warszawa

1.34

Chrobry Głogów

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 42 away

1.14

creates per match

0.98

1.55

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa

1.14

Chrobry Głogów

0.98

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa

1.55

Chrobry Głogów

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Chrobry Głogów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw

65%

Polonia Warszawa or Chrobry Głogów

74%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów

62%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+

17%

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals

74%

Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals

39%

Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals

15%

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

72%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

36%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)

52%

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.14 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

Chrobry Głogów attack 0.98 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more

38%

level

26%

Chrobry Głogów scores more

35%

Polonia Warszawa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches
Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
Both sides lean high-scoring (75% and 83% over 2.5)
83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
75% of Polonia Warszawa’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Both teams score in 75% of Polonia Warszawa’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Warszawa

LLWLL

Głogów

WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff