Chrobry Głogów 1–2 Polonia Warszawa: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Polonia Warszawa

P. Szwedzik 69' (pen)

S. Kobusiński 81'

P. Mucha 42' (OG)

8/30/2024

I Liga · Round 8Stadion GOS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Chrobry Głogów35%

×Draw24%

Polonia Warszawa41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchPolonia Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.61

Chrobry Głogów

1.47

Polonia Warszawa

1.61

Polonia Warszawa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 24 away

1.40

creates per match

1.71

1.51

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.40

Polonia Warszawa

1.71

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.51

Polonia Warszawa

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Polonia Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

59%

Chrobry Głogów or Polonia Warszawa

76%

Draw or Polonia Warszawa

65%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

16%

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

77%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

43%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

18%

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals

80%

Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals

48%

Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

46%

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 43 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.40 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.47

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.71 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

35%

level

24%

Polonia Warszawa scores more

41%

Polonia Warszawa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

M. Lebedynski

21'

O. Wojciechowski

42'

P. MuchaOwn goal

46'

P. Szwedzik← B. Biel

46'

S. Bonecki← P. Szarek

63'

K. Kotoń← Dani Vega

63'

M. Predenkiewicz← O. Wojciechowski

69'

P. SzwedzikPenalty

75'

E. Terpiłowski← İ. Durmuş

75'

M. Bajdur← Xabi Auzmendi

77'

M. Ozimek← P. Szwedzik

81'

82'

84'

85'

89'

Ł. Zjawiński← S. Kobusiński

Chrobry

Polonia

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

Manager: P. Plewnia

46'▲P. Szwedzik←▼B. Biel

46'▲S. Bonecki←▼P. Szarek

77'▲M. Ozimek←▼P. Szwedzik

82'▲J. Kuzdra←▼D. Hanc

84'▲P. Tupaj←▼K. Tabiś

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

SzwedzikBoneckiOzimekKuzdraTupajMarcinkowskiWróblewskiSkowronekLewkot

Manager: M. Pawlak

63'▲K. Kotoń←▼Dani Vega

63'▲M. Predenkiewicz←▼O. Wojciechowski

75'▲E. Terpiłowski←▼İ. Durmuş

75'▲M. Bajdur←▼Xabi Auzmendi

89'▲Ł. Zjawiński←▼S. Kobusiński

Polonia Warszawa substitutes

KotońPredenkiewiczTerpiłowskiBajdurZjawińskiLemanowiczPiątekKluskaVasin

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs Polonia Warszawa

Polonia Warszawa beat Chrobry Głogów 2-1 in I Liga on August 30, 2024.

Goals: P. Mucha (42' o.g.), P. Szwedzik (69' pen), S. Kobusiński (81').

The match was played at Stadion GOS in Głogów.

Chrobry Głogów vs Polonia Warszawa — I Liga 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs Polonia Warszawa