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Polonia Warszawa vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2018

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
3/3/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 22Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Polonia Warszawa41%
×Draw26%
Chrobry Głogów33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
1.42
Chrobry Głogów
1.23

Polonia Warszawa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 138 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.27
Chrobry Głogów
1.04

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.41
Chrobry Głogów
1.57

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Chrobry Głogów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
67%
Polonia Warszawa or Chrobry Głogów
74%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
59%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
20%
Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
76%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
41%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
17%
Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
71%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
35%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
56%
Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.04 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
41%
level
26%
Chrobry Głogów scores more
33%

Polonia Warszawa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Warszawa vs Chrobry Głogów

Polonia Warszawa and Chrobry Głogów drew 1-1 in I Liga on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.