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Polonia Warszawa U19 vs Warta Poznań U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Polonia Warszawa U19
Polonia Warszawa U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Warta Poznań U19
Warta Poznań U19
3/28/2024Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Polonia Warszawa U1957%
×Draw20%
Warta Poznań U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa U19
2.26
Warta Poznań U19
1.38

Polonia Warszawa U19 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 30 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa U19
1.69
Warta Poznań U19
1.47

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa U19
1.29
Warta Poznań U19
2.83

finishing

Polonia Warszawa U19+0.00on par
Warta Poznań U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa U19 ↓

Warta Poznań U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa U19 or draw
77%
Polonia Warszawa U19 or Warta Poznań U19
80%
Draw or Warta Poznań U19
43%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+
35%
Warta Poznań U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa U19 1+ goals
89%
Polonia Warszawa U19 2+ goals
66%
Polonia Warszawa U19 3+ goals
39%
Warta Poznań U19 1+ goals
75%
Warta Poznań U19 2+ goals
40%
Warta Poznań U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Warta Poznań U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa U19 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Warta Poznań U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa U19 attack 1.69 + Warta Poznań U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.26

Warta Poznań U19 attack 1.47 + Polonia Warszawa U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Polonia Warszawa U19 scores more
57%
level
20%
Warta Poznań U19 scores more
23%

Polonia Warszawa U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Polonia Warszawa U19 3–2 Warta Poznań U19

Polonia Warszawa U19 beat Warta Poznań U19 3-2 in Central Youth League on March 28, 2024.