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Polonia Warszawa U19 vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Polonia Warszawa U19
Polonia Warszawa U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
11/18/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Polonia Warszawa U1965%
×Draw18%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U1917%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa U19
2.48
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
1.21

Polonia Warszawa U19 creates 105% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 15 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa U19
1.69
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
1.13

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa U19
1.29
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
3.27

finishing

Polonia Warszawa U19+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa U19 ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa U19 or draw
83%
Polonia Warszawa U19 or Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
82%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
35%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+
43%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa U19 1+ goals
92%
Polonia Warszawa U19 2+ goals
70%
Polonia Warszawa U19 3+ goals
44%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 1+ goals
70%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 2+ goals
34%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)
79%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa U19 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa U19 attack 1.69 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.48

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 attack 1.13 + Polonia Warszawa U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Polonia Warszawa U19 scores more
65%
level
18%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 scores more
17%

Polonia Warszawa U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Warszawa U19 vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 beat Polonia Warszawa U19 3-2 in Central Youth League on November 18, 2023.