Polonia Warszawa U19 1–2 Lech Poznań U19

Polonia Warszawa U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Lech Poznań U19

10/11/2025

Central Youth League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Polonia Warszawa U1937%

×Draw23%

Lech Poznań U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia Warszawa U19Expected goals in this matchLech Poznań U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.66

Polonia Warszawa U19

1.61

Lech Poznań U19

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

1.69

creates per match

2.02

1.29

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa U19

1.69

Lech Poznań U19

2.02

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa U19

1.29

Lech Poznań U19

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Warszawa U19+0.00on par

Lech Poznań U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa U19 ↓

Lech Poznań U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa U19 or draw

61%

Polonia Warszawa U19 or Lech Poznań U19

77%

Draw or Lech Poznań U19

63%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+

18%

Lech Poznań U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa U19 1+ goals

80%

Polonia Warszawa U19 2+ goals

48%

Polonia Warszawa U19 3+ goals

22%

Lech Poznań U19 1+ goals

81%

Lech Poznań U19 2+ goals

49%

Lech Poznań U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Lech Poznań U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa U19 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Lech Poznań U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa U19 attack 1.69 + Lech Poznań U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lech Poznań U19 attack 2.02 + Polonia Warszawa U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Polonia Warszawa U19 scores more

37%

level

23%

Lech Poznań U19 scores more

39%

Lech Poznań U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lech Poznań U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff