Polonia Warszawa U18 1–0 Arka Gdynia U18

Polonia Warszawa U18

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arka Gdynia U18

8/13/2022

Central Youth League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Polonia Warszawa U1850%

×Draw21%

Arka Gdynia U1829%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia Warszawa U18Expected goals in this matchArka Gdynia U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.63

Polonia Warszawa U18

2.18

Arka Gdynia U18

1.63

Polonia Warszawa U18 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

2.52

creates per match

1.61

1.65

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa U18

2.52

Arka Gdynia U18

1.61

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa U18

1.65

Arka Gdynia U18

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Warszawa U18+0.00on par

Arka Gdynia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa U18 ↓

Arka Gdynia U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa U18 or draw

71%

Polonia Warszawa U18 or Arka Gdynia U18

79%

Draw or Arka Gdynia U18

50%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa U18 wins by 2+

30%

Arka Gdynia U18 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa U18 1+ goals

89%

Polonia Warszawa U18 2+ goals

64%

Polonia Warszawa U18 3+ goals

37%

Arka Gdynia U18 1+ goals

80%

Arka Gdynia U18 2+ goals

48%

Arka Gdynia U18 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa U18 (draw refunded)

63%

Arka Gdynia U18 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa U18 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

Arka Gdynia U18 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa U18 attack 2.52 + Arka Gdynia U18 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.18

Arka Gdynia U18 attack 1.61 + Polonia Warszawa U18 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Polonia Warszawa U18 scores more

50%

level

21%

Arka Gdynia U18 scores more

29%

Polonia Warszawa U18 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff