Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Polonia Środa vs Pomorzanin Toruń — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Polonia Środa
Polonia Środa
FT
1 – 1
Pomorzanin Toruń
Pomorzanin Toruń
3/20/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Środa46%
×Draw24%
Pomorzanin Toruń30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Środa
1.71
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.34

Polonia Środa creates 28% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 17 away

creates per match

Polonia Środa
1.94
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.18

allows per match

Polonia Środa
1.51
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.47

finishing

Polonia Środa+0.00on par
Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Środa ↓

Pomorzanin Toruń →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Polonia Środa or draw
70%
Polonia Środa or Pomorzanin Toruń
76%
Draw or Pomorzanin Toruń
54%

Winning margin

Polonia Środa wins by 2+
24%
Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Polonia Środa 1+ goals
82%
Polonia Środa 2+ goals
51%
Polonia Środa 3+ goals
24%
Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals
74%
Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals
39%
Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Polonia Środa (draw refunded)
60%
Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Środa at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.51 · 102 matches

Pomorzanin Toruń away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Środa attack 1.94 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.18 + Polonia Środa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Polonia Środa scores more
46%
level
24%
Pomorzanin Toruń scores more
30%

Polonia Środa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Polonia Środa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Polonia Środa 1–1 Pomorzanin Toruń

Polonia Środa and Pomorzanin Toruń drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej in Środa Wielkopolska.