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Polonia Środa vs Nielba Wągrowiec — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Polonia Środa
Polonia Środa
FT
1 – 1
Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
11/14/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Środa39%
×Draw22%
Nielba Wągrowiec40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Środa
1.85
Nielba Wągrowiec
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 17 away

creates per match

Polonia Środa
1.94
Nielba Wągrowiec
2.24

allows per match

Polonia Środa
1.51
Nielba Wągrowiec
1.76

finishing

Polonia Środa+0.00on par
Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Środa ↓

Nielba Wągrowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Polonia Środa or draw
60%
Polonia Środa or Nielba Wągrowiec
78%
Draw or Nielba Wągrowiec
61%

Winning margin

Polonia Środa wins by 2+
20%
Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Polonia Środa 1+ goals
84%
Polonia Środa 2+ goals
55%
Polonia Środa 3+ goals
28%
Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
85%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
56%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Polonia Środa (draw refunded)
49%
Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Środa at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.51 · 102 matches

Nielba Wągrowiec away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Środa attack 1.94 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.85

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.24 + Polonia Środa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polonia Środa scores more
39%
level
22%
Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
40%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Środa vs Nielba Wągrowiec

Polonia Środa and Nielba Wągrowiec drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej in Środa Wielkopolska.