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Polonia Środa vs Górnik Konin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Polonia Środa
Polonia Środa
FT
2 – 1
Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
9/12/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Środa54%
×Draw23%
Górnik Konin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Środa
1.88
Górnik Konin
1.17

Polonia Środa creates 61% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 17 away

creates per match

Polonia Środa
1.94
Górnik Konin
0.82

allows per match

Polonia Środa
1.51
Górnik Konin
1.82

finishing

Polonia Środa+0.00on par
Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Środa ↓

Górnik Konin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Polonia Środa or draw
76%
Polonia Środa or Górnik Konin
77%
Draw or Górnik Konin
46%

Winning margin

Polonia Środa wins by 2+
31%
Górnik Konin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Polonia Środa 1+ goals
85%
Polonia Środa 2+ goals
56%
Polonia Środa 3+ goals
29%
Górnik Konin 1+ goals
69%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
33%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Polonia Środa (draw refunded)
70%
Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Środa at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.51 · 102 matches

Górnik Konin away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Środa attack 1.94 + Górnik Konin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.88

Górnik Konin attack 0.82 + Polonia Środa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Polonia Środa scores more
54%
level
23%
Górnik Konin scores more
24%

Polonia Środa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Polonia Środa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Polonia Środa 2–1 Górnik Konin

Polonia Środa beat Górnik Konin 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej in Środa Wielkopolska.