Polonia Środa 5–0 Chemik Police: Result & Stats

Polonia Środa

FT

5 – 0

Chemik Police

9/25/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Środa65%

×Draw18%

Chemik Police17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia ŚrodaExpected goals in this matchChemik Police

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.20

Polonia Środa

2.47

Chemik Police

1.20

Polonia Środa creates 106% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 17 away

1.94

creates per match

0.88

1.51

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Polonia Środa

1.94

Chemik Police

0.88

allows per match

Polonia Środa

1.51

Chemik Police

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Środa+0.00on par

Chemik Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Środa ↓

Chemik Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Polonia Środa or draw

83%

Polonia Środa or Chemik Police

82%

Draw or Chemik Police

35%

Winning margin

Polonia Środa wins by 2+

43%

Chemik Police wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Polonia Środa 1+ goals

91%

Polonia Środa 2+ goals

70%

Polonia Środa 3+ goals

44%

Chemik Police 1+ goals

70%

Chemik Police 2+ goals

34%

Chemik Police 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Polonia Środa (draw refunded)

79%

Chemik Police (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Środa at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.51 · 102 matches

Chemik Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Środa attack 1.94 + Chemik Police defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.47

Chemik Police attack 0.88 + Polonia Środa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Polonia Środa scores more

65%

level

18%

Chemik Police scores more

17%

Polonia Środa at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Polonia Środa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff