Polonia Słubice 1–2 Podlesianka: Result & Stats

Polonia Słubice

FT

1 – 2

Podlesianka

10/5/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadion SOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Słubice21%

×Draw22%

Podlesianka56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia SłubiceExpected goals in this matchPodlesianka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.88

Polonia Słubice

1.06

Podlesianka

1.88

Podlesianka creates 77% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.41

creates per match

1.47

2.29

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Polonia Słubice

0.41

Podlesianka

1.47

allows per match

Polonia Słubice

2.29

Podlesianka

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Słubice+0.00on par

Podlesianka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Słubice ↓

Podlesianka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Polonia Słubice or draw

44%

Polonia Słubice or Podlesianka

78%

Draw or Podlesianka

79%

Winning margin

Polonia Słubice wins by 2+

8%

Podlesianka wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Polonia Słubice 1+ goals

65%

Polonia Słubice 2+ goals

29%

Polonia Słubice 3+ goals

9%

Podlesianka 1+ goals

85%

Podlesianka 2+ goals

56%

Podlesianka 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Polonia Słubice (draw refunded)

27%

Podlesianka (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Słubice at home — creates 0.41, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

Podlesianka away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Słubice attack 0.41 + Podlesianka defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.06

Podlesianka attack 1.47 + Polonia Słubice defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Polonia Słubice scores more

21%

level

22%

Podlesianka scores more

56%

Podlesianka at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Podlesianka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff