Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Polonia Nysa vs Odra Wodzislaw — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
11/11/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Stadion KS Polonia Nysa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polonia Nysa46%
×Draw23%
Odra Wodzislaw31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Nysa
1.83
Odra Wodzislaw
1.47

Polonia Nysa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Polonia Nysa
1.37
Odra Wodzislaw
1.35

allows per match

Polonia Nysa
1.58
Odra Wodzislaw
2.29

finishing

Polonia Nysa+0.00on par
Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Nysa ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Polonia Nysa or draw
69%
Polonia Nysa or Odra Wodzislaw
77%
Draw or Odra Wodzislaw
54%

Winning margin

Polonia Nysa wins by 2+
25%
Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Polonia Nysa 1+ goals
84%
Polonia Nysa 2+ goals
54%
Polonia Nysa 3+ goals
28%
Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
77%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
43%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Polonia Nysa (draw refunded)
60%
Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Nysa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.58 · 52 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Nysa attack 1.37 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Polonia Nysa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Polonia Nysa scores more
46%
level
23%
Odra Wodzislaw scores more
31%

Polonia Nysa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Polonia Nysa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Nysa vs Odra Wodzislaw

Polonia Nysa and Odra Wodzislaw drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion KS Polonia Nysa in Nysa.