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Polonia Bytom vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — II Liga - East 2019

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
6/7/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 34Stadion Polonii Bytom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Polonia Bytom57%
×Draw22%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
1.96
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.10

Polonia Bytom creates 78% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
2.38
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.06

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
1.15
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.55

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
79%
Polonia Bytom or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
78%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
43%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
34%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
86%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
58%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
31%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
67%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
30%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
73%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.38 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.96

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
57%
level
22%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
21%

Polonia Bytom at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Polonia Bytom 0–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Polonia Bytom 1-0 in II Liga - East on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii Bytom in Bytom.