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Polonia Bytom vs Raków Częstochowa II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
3 – 1
Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
4/8/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polonia Bytom55%
×Draw22%
Raków Częstochowa II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
2.02
Raków Częstochowa II
1.25

Polonia Bytom creates 62% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
2.33
Raków Częstochowa II
1.53

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
0.96
Raków Częstochowa II
1.71

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
77%
Polonia Bytom or Raków Częstochowa II
78%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa II
45%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
32%
Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
87%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
60%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
33%
Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
71%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
36%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
70%
Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.33 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.02

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Polonia Bytom defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
55%
level
22%
Raków Częstochowa II scores more
23%

Polonia Bytom at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Bytom vs Raków Częstochowa II

Polonia Bytom beat Raków Częstochowa II 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka in Bytom.