Polonia Bytom 2–1 Piast Żmigród: Result & Stats

Polonia Bytom

FT

2 – 1

Piast Żmigród

5/8/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 30Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Polonia Bytom59%

×Draw20%

Piast Żmigród20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia BytomExpected goals in this matchPiast Żmigród

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.23

Polonia Bytom

2.22

Piast Żmigród

1.23

Polonia Bytom creates 80% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 35 away

2.33

creates per match

1.49

0.96

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Polonia Bytom

2.33

Piast Żmigród

1.49

allows per match

Polonia Bytom

0.96

Piast Żmigród

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Piast Żmigród →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw

80%

Polonia Bytom or Piast Żmigród

80%

Draw or Piast Żmigród

41%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

37%

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

89%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

65%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

38%

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals

71%

Piast Żmigród 2+ goals

35%

Piast Żmigród 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

74%

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.33 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.22

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Polonia Bytom defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more

59%

level

20%

Piast Żmigród scores more

20%

Polonia Bytom at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff