Polonia Bytom 1–1 Piast Gliwice: Result & Stats

Polonia Bytom

FT

1 – 1

Piast Gliwice

2/11/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polonia Bytom39%

×Draw25%

Piast Gliwice36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia BytomExpected goals in this matchPiast Gliwice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.35

Polonia Bytom

1.42

Piast Gliwice

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

1.53

creates per match

0.70

2.00

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Polonia Bytom

1.53

Piast Gliwice

0.70

allows per match

Polonia Bytom

2.00

Piast Gliwice

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Piast Gliwice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Piast Gliwice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw

64%

Polonia Bytom or Piast Gliwice

75%

Draw or Piast Gliwice

61%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

18%

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

76%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

41%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

17%

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

74%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

39%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

52%

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 1.53 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Piast Gliwice attack 0.70 + Polonia Bytom defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more

39%

level

25%

Piast Gliwice scores more

36%

Polonia Bytom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff