Polonia Bytom 2–0 Olimpia Grudziądz: Result & Stats

Polonia Bytom

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Olimpia Grudziądz

7/28/2024

II Liga - East · Round 2Stadion Polonii Bytom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polonia Bytom55%

×Draw22%

Olimpia Grudziądz23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia BytomExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Grudziądz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.21

Polonia Bytom

1.98

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.21

Polonia Bytom creates 64% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

2.38

creates per match

1.26

1.15

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Polonia Bytom

2.38

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.26

allows per match

Polonia Bytom

1.15

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw

77%

Polonia Bytom or Olimpia Grudziądz

78%

Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz

45%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

32%

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

86%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

59%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

31%

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

70%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

34%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

70%

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.38 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.98

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more

55%

level

22%

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

23%

Polonia Bytom at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff