Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2025

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
Preview
15:00
Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
10/17/2026I LigaI Liga · Round 11Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka
51%
Polonia Bytom
model favours
51%25%24%

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Bytom51%
×Draw25%
Chrobry Głogów24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
1.63
Chrobry Głogów
1.03

Polonia Bytom creates 58% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
1.82
Chrobry Głogów
0.94

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
1.12
Chrobry Głogów
1.44

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Chrobry Głogów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
76%
Polonia Bytom or Chrobry Głogów
75%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
49%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
27%
Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
80%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
48%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
22%
Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
64%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
28%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
68%
Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 1.82 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.63

Chrobry Głogów attack 0.94 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
51%
level
25%
Chrobry Głogów scores more
24%

Polonia Bytom at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
  • Both teams score in 91% of Polonia Bytom’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 83% over 2.5)
  • 83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Polonia Bytom have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Polonia Bytom’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bytom
LWW
Głogów
WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Polonia Bytom face Chrobry Głogów (I Liga)

I Liga returns with Polonia Bytom hosting Chrobry Głogów. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Polonia Bytom host Chrobry Głogów at Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.