Chrobry Głogów 0–1 Polonia Bytom: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Polonia Bytom

K. Wojtyra 15'

7/26/2025

I Liga · Round 2Stadion Chrobrego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów44%

×Draw24%

Polonia Bytom32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchPolonia Bytom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.36

Chrobry Głogów

1.65

Polonia Bytom

1.36

Chrobry Głogów creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

1.48

creates per match

1.47

1.26

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.48

Polonia Bytom

1.47

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.26

Polonia Bytom

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Polonia Bytom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

68%

Chrobry Głogów or Polonia Bytom

76%

Draw or Polonia Bytom

56%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

23%

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

81%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

49%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

23%

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

74%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

39%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

58%

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.48 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Polonia Bytom attack 1.47 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

44%

level

24%

Polonia Bytom scores more

32%

Chrobry Głogów at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Gric

13'

O. Azatsky

15'

K. Wojtyra↳ J. Apolinarski

20'

K. Grzelak

35'

K. Laskowski

38'

O. Krzyzak

46'

K. Ibe-Torti← K. Grzelak

46'

S. Lewkot← K. Laskowski

56'

T. Gajda

56'

S. Lewkot

62'

K. Nowakowski← S. Bartlewicz

65'

K. Michalski← J. Apolinarski

65'

J. Arak← K. Andrzejczak

71'

D. Arndt

71'

J. Arak

72'

J. Szymanski← G. Szymusik

74'

J. Arak

74'

J. Arak

76'

P. Janczukowicz← M. Ozimek

86'

M. Bartolewski← K. Tabis

86'

P. Stefanski← K. Wolkowicz

Chrobry

Polonia

1

Holewinsk

14

▼

Szymusik

30

Krzyzak

13

Azatsky

27

A

▼

Apolinars

8

Labojko

18

Gajda

17

▼

Wolkowicz

19

Sarmiento

9

⚽

Wojtyra

11

▼

99

29

16

18

80

▼

Tabis

8

Gric

24

▼

Grzelak

30

▼

Bartlewic

11

Strozik

27

▼

Laskowski

9

▼

Ozimek

Manager: Lukasz Becella

46'▲K. Ibe-Torti←▼K. Grzelak

46'▲S. Lewkot←▼K. Laskowski

62'▲K. Nowakowski←▼S. Bartlewicz

76'▲P. Janczukowicz←▼M. Ozimek

86'▲M. Bartolewski←▼K. Tabis

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

95Lenarcik77Bartolewski7Bonecki17Ibe-Torti13Kuzdra23Lewkot35Marcinkowski10Nowakowski89Janczukowicz

Manager: Patryk Czubak

65'▲K. Michalski←▼J. Apolinarski

65'▲J. Arak←▼K. Andrzejczak

72'▲J. Szymanski←▼G. Szymusik

86'▲P. Stefanski←▼K. Wolkowicz

Polonia Bytom substitutes

35Mazur10Michalski15Kwiatkowski16Stefanski22Calavera23Arak25Konieczny32Terlecki77Szymanski