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Polokwane City vs Supersport United — Premier Soccer League 2018

Polokwane City
Polokwane City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Supersport United
Supersport United
10/2/2018Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 6Pietersburg Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Polokwane City37%
×Draw31%
Supersport United32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polokwane City
1.06
Supersport United
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 106 away

creates per match

Polokwane City
1.00
Supersport United
0.95

allows per match

Polokwane City
0.99
Supersport United
1.11

finishing

Polokwane City+0.00on par
Supersport United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polokwane City ↓

Supersport United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Polokwane City or draw
68%
Polokwane City or Supersport United
69%
Draw or Supersport United
63%

Winning margin

Polokwane City wins by 2+
15%
Supersport United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Polokwane City 1+ goals
65%
Polokwane City 2+ goals
29%
Polokwane City 3+ goals
9%
Supersport United 1+ goals
62%
Supersport United 2+ goals
25%
Supersport United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Polokwane City (draw refunded)
53%
Supersport United (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polokwane City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 78 matches

Supersport United away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.11 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polokwane City attack 1.00 + Supersport United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Supersport United attack 0.95 + Polokwane City defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Polokwane City scores more
37%
level
31%
Supersport United scores more
32%

Polokwane City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Polokwane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Polokwane City 1–1 Supersport United

Polokwane City and Supersport United drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on October 2, 2018.

The match was played at Pietersburg Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg)).