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Polokwane City vs Orlando Pirates — Premier Soccer League 2018

Polokwane City
Polokwane City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Orlando Pirates
Orlando Pirates
4/5/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 19Old Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Polokwane City29%
×Draw30%
Orlando Pirates40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polokwane City
0.92
Orlando Pirates
1.13

Orlando Pirates creates 23% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 119 away

creates per match

Polokwane City
1.00
Orlando Pirates
1.26

allows per match

Polokwane City
0.99
Orlando Pirates
0.83

finishing

Polokwane City+0.00on par
Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polokwane City ↓

Orlando Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Polokwane City or draw
60%
Polokwane City or Orlando Pirates
70%
Draw or Orlando Pirates
71%

Winning margin

Polokwane City wins by 2+
10%
Orlando Pirates wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Polokwane City 1+ goals
60%
Polokwane City 2+ goals
23%
Polokwane City 3+ goals
7%
Orlando Pirates 1+ goals
68%
Orlando Pirates 2+ goals
31%
Orlando Pirates 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Polokwane City (draw refunded)
42%
Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polokwane City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches

Orlando Pirates away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polokwane City attack 1.00 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Orlando Pirates attack 1.26 + Polokwane City defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polokwane City scores more
29%
level
30%
Orlando Pirates scores more
40%

Orlando Pirates at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polokwane City vs Orlando Pirates

Orlando Pirates beat Polokwane City 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Old Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.