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Polokwane City vs Highlands Park FC — Premier Soccer League 2018

Polokwane City
Polokwane City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Highlands Park FC
Highlands Park FC
8/22/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 21Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Polokwane City40%
×Draw31%
Highlands Park FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polokwane City
1.10
Highlands Park FC
0.91

Polokwane City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 30 away

creates per match

Polokwane City
1.00
Highlands Park FC
0.83

allows per match

Polokwane City
0.99
Highlands Park FC
1.20

finishing

Polokwane City+0.00on par
Highlands Park FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polokwane City ↓

Highlands Park FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Polokwane City or draw
70%
Polokwane City or Highlands Park FC
69%
Draw or Highlands Park FC
60%

Winning margin

Polokwane City wins by 2+
16%
Highlands Park FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Polokwane City 1+ goals
67%
Polokwane City 2+ goals
30%
Polokwane City 3+ goals
10%
Highlands Park FC 1+ goals
60%
Highlands Park FC 2+ goals
23%
Highlands Park FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Polokwane City (draw refunded)
57%
Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polokwane City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches

Highlands Park FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polokwane City attack 1.00 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Highlands Park FC attack 0.83 + Polokwane City defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polokwane City scores more
40%
level
31%
Highlands Park FC scores more
30%

Polokwane City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Polokwane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Polokwane City 1–1 Highlands Park FC

Polokwane City and Highlands Park FC drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Tshwane.