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Polokwane City vs Free State Stars — Premier Soccer League 2018

Polokwane City
Polokwane City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Free State Stars
Free State Stars
9/15/2018Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 4Pietersburg Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Polokwane City47%
×Draw28%
Free State Stars25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polokwane City
1.36
Free State Stars
0.90

Polokwane City creates 51% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 15 away

creates per match

Polokwane City
1.00
Free State Stars
0.80

allows per match

Polokwane City
0.99
Free State Stars
1.73

finishing

Polokwane City+0.00on par
Free State Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polokwane City ↓

Free State Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Polokwane City or draw
75%
Polokwane City or Free State Stars
72%
Draw or Free State Stars
53%

Winning margin

Polokwane City wins by 2+
23%
Free State Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Polokwane City 1+ goals
74%
Polokwane City 2+ goals
39%
Polokwane City 3+ goals
16%
Free State Stars 1+ goals
59%
Free State Stars 2+ goals
23%
Free State Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Polokwane City (draw refunded)
66%
Free State Stars (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polokwane City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches

Free State Stars away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polokwane City attack 1.00 + Free State Stars defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Free State Stars attack 0.80 + Polokwane City defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Polokwane City scores more
47%
level
28%
Free State Stars scores more
25%

Polokwane City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Polokwane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polokwane City vs Free State Stars

Polokwane City beat Free State Stars 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Pietersburg Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg)).