Polokwane City 3–1 Ajax Cape Town: Result & Stats

Polokwane City

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ajax Cape Town

8/19/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 3Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Polokwane City42%

×Draw30%

Ajax Cape Town28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polokwane CityExpected goals in this matchAjax Cape Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.92

Polokwane City

1.19

Ajax Cape Town

0.92

Polokwane City creates 29% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

0.84

0.99

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Polokwane City

1.00

Ajax Cape Town

0.84

allows per match

Polokwane City

0.99

Ajax Cape Town

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polokwane City+0.00on par

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polokwane City ↓

Ajax Cape Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Polokwane City or draw

72%

Polokwane City or Ajax Cape Town

70%

Draw or Ajax Cape Town

58%

Winning margin

Polokwane City wins by 2+

18%

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Polokwane City 1+ goals

70%

Polokwane City 2+ goals

33%

Polokwane City 3+ goals

12%

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals

60%

Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals

23%

Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Polokwane City (draw refunded)

60%

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polokwane City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches

Ajax Cape Town away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polokwane City attack 1.00 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.84 + Polokwane City defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Polokwane City scores more

42%

level

30%

Ajax Cape Town scores more

28%

Polokwane City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Polokwane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff