Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pollok vs Girvan — FA Cup 2019

Pollok
Pollok
FT
6 – 0
Girvan
Girvan
8/27/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundNewlandsfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pollok70%
×Draw14%
Girvan16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pollok
3.70
Girvan
1.80

Pollok creates 106% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Pollok
4.40
Girvan
2.00

allows per match

Pollok
1.60
Girvan
3.00

finishing

Pollok+0.00on par
Girvan+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pollok ↓

Girvan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Pollok or draw
84%
Pollok or Girvan
86%
Draw or Girvan
30%

Winning margin

Pollok wins by 2+
52%
Girvan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pollok 1+ goals
97%
Pollok 2+ goals
87%
Pollok 3+ goals
69%
Girvan 1+ goals
83%
Girvan 2+ goals
54%
Girvan 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Pollok (draw refunded)
82%
Girvan (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pollok at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Girvan away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pollok attack 4.40 + Girvan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.70

Girvan attack 2.00 + Pollok defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Pollok scores more
70%
level
14%
Girvan scores more
16%

Pollok at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Pollok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pollok vs Girvan

Pollok beat Girvan 6-0 in FA Cup on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Newlandsfield Park in Glasgow.