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Pollok vs Darvel — FA Cup 2019

Pollok
Pollok
FT
1 – 3
Darvel
Darvel
8/31/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundNewlandsfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pollok53%
×Draw18%
Darvel29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pollok
2.83
Darvel
2.08

Pollok creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pollok
4.40
Darvel
2.55

allows per match

Pollok
1.60
Darvel
1.27

finishing

Pollok+0.00on par
Darvel+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pollok ↓

Darvel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Pollok or draw
71%
Pollok or Darvel
82%
Draw or Darvel
47%

Winning margin

Pollok wins by 2+
34%
Darvel wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pollok 1+ goals
94%
Pollok 2+ goals
77%
Pollok 3+ goals
53%
Darvel 1+ goals
87%
Darvel 2+ goals
61%
Darvel 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Pollok (draw refunded)
65%
Darvel (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pollok at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Darvel away — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pollok attack 4.40 + Darvel defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 2.83

Darvel attack 2.55 + Pollok defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pollok scores more
53%
level
18%
Darvel scores more
29%

Pollok at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pollok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Pollok 1–3 Darvel

Darvel beat Pollok 3-1 in FA Cup on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Newlandsfield Park in Glasgow.